With Gold forecasts revised for 2025 and 2026: major banks predict record high prices.

As we head deep into Q3 of the 2025 financial year, major banks and authorities such as the World Gold Council are busy updating their outlook on gold prices for the months ahead.

Gold price forecasts come in many forms, from official reports and papers to interviews and opinion articles. These predictions can provide valuable guidance to gold investors, but they’re often densely written and difficult to access. 

To help you out, our knowledgeable gold brokers have sifted through the forecasts for the second half of 2025 and 2026 to find the real nuggets of insight that will help you to sell or buy gold smartly over the coming year.

2025 gold forecasts in context

Before we delve into the latest gold forecasts, we’d like to remind you of the broader context which has informed these statements and continues to influence the market:

• Gold prices remain high. There’s a good chance you’ve heard about soaring gold prices in the news since 2024. 
• Central banks are stockpiling gold. Amid the geopolitical turmoil of recent years, the central banks of many countries have sought financial security by buying large amounts of gold. This continues to affect global supply and price.
• Economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still felt. Five years on from the first COVID lockdowns, the knock-on effects of the pandemic and ensuing government responses remain relevant to commodities investment. In particular, inflation and fiscal deficits are still at high levels.

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Key messages from the latest gold price reports

Bank of America (BofA) Capital Market Outlook

BofA’s Chief Investment Office was bullish about the near-term future of gold prices in its latest Capital Market Outlook paper, published 23rd June. 

“We see more upside for the bull run in gold, which emerged as the second-largest official reserve asset for central banks last year owing to higher inflation, geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from China and India,” the authors wrote. 

“Gold prices have been on a tear since the beginning of 2024, with spot prices rising from $2,603 per troy ounce on January 1, 2024 to nearly $3,400 on June 17, 2025 – a near 65% rise. Over the same period, the total return of the S&P 500 was 28%. More upside is expected for gold from current levels, with many on Wall Street expecting gold to reach the $4,000 threshold in the not-too-distant future.”

BofA has previously foregrounded the Russo-Ukrainian War as a cause of this ongoing trend, but the bank now places added emphasis on the role of U.S. debt and fiscal policy in driving ‘safe haven’ stockpiling. It bluntly references “fiscal profligacy in the U.S. and mounting concerns of ever-widening deficit/debt levels under the Trump administration”. 

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Managing Director, Daan Struvyen, said the investment bank remains bullish on gold during an interview for the company’s Exchanges podcast, published 1st July. 

“We still expect the gold price to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce, so that’s another 20% of upside for here,” he said.

“The main reason is structurally higher demand from central banks. Central bank buying of gold has increased five-fold since ’22 when Russia’s central bank reserves got frozen. 

“We just got the survey [results] a couple of months ago [from] surveying more than 70 central banks across the world, and [it] showed record high purchase intentions, with no central bank that was surveyed indicating that they would reduce their gold holdings over the next 12 months.” 

Struyven also noted that a growth in private investment could stimulate a further increase in the price of gold. 

“The next giant leap for gold markets could be [that] private investors, who often feel like they’re overallocated to the dollar, may reallocate to some extent out of dollar holdings into gold, and that could be the next giant leap for gold markets because the gold market is 200 times smaller than the US S&P 500,” he remarked.

“You only need a very small shift of flows into the much smaller gold market to cause very significant gold price upside.”

HSBC 

British universal bank, HSBC, has joined the chorus of experts predicting that gold prices will continue to increase over the months ahead. 

“HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,215 an ounce from $3,015 and its 2026 forecast to $3,125 from $2,915, citing elevated risks and government debt,” Reuters reported on 1st July. 

“Gold tends to perform well during periods of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension, which lifted spot gold to a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce in late April.”

Citi

Where many other banks are bullish, Citi is bearish on gold prices through 2025 and 2026. 

“Citi lowered its short-term and long-term price targets for gold, projecting prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026, driven by declining investment demand and an improving global growth outlook,” Reuters reported on 17th June. 

The bank revised its 0-3 month and 6-12 month gold price targets to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500 and $2,800 per ounce from $3,000, respectively.

“Gold could return to around $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026″, the bank said.

UBS

The latest analysis from UBS suggests that the Swiss banking institution remains optimistic about the near-term future of gold prices. 

“Although gold has retreated from record highs in recent weeks, we continue to see gold as an attractive source of diversification,” said the bank’s Chief Investment Office. 

“Our base case is for the metal to end the year trading around USD 3,500 an ounce, compared to USD 3,325 an ounce at present.” 

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan’s latest guidance on gold prices, published via its global portal on 10th June, predicts that gold prices will continue to reach new record highs into 2026. 

“Earlier this year, we examined the structural shift in gold’s demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fueling its rebasing higher, ultimately posing the question if $4,000/oz is in the cards,” said Natasha Kaneva, the bank’s Head of Global Commodities Strategy.

“To answer the question – yes, we think it is, particularly now with recession probabilities and ongoing trade and tariff risks. We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” Kaneva added.

J.P. Morgan has forecast gold prices to average $3,675/oz by Q4 2025, rising toward $4,000/oz by Q2 2026.

Deutsche

In a must-read report on commodities trading in 2025, Deutsche forecast gold prices to continue rising through the remainder of the year. 

“Overall, we remain optimistic about gold prices,” wrote Senior Investment Strategists Michael Blumenroth and Ahmed Khalid. 

“Geopolitical and fiscal policy uncertainties are likely to continue driving the search for ‘safe havens’. Demand, especially in China and India, is expected to remain at a high level, and central banks should also remain on the buyer side.

“Our 12-months target for gold is USD3,700/oz.” 

ING 

ING Commodities Strategist, Ewa Manthey, suggested that gold prices require a new catalyst for growth in the bank’s latest ‘Gold Monthly’ thinkpiece, published 15th July. 

“The bullish drivers remain intact for gold, including central bank and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions,” said Manthey. 

“But with ETF demand cooling and net longs in gold futures declining, gold will need a fresh catalyst […] For now, gold is stuck in a range […] and with trade and geopolitical tensions heating up again, it might not take much to reignite that rally.” 

World Gold Council (WGC) 

The WGC published its influential Gold Mid-Year Outlook for 2025 on 15th July. 

“If economists and market participants are correct in their macro predictions, our analysis suggests that gold may move sideways with some possible upside – increasing an additional 0%-5% in the second half,” the organisation commented.

“However, the economy rarely performs according to consensus. Should economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions, safe haven demand could significantly increase pushing gold 10%-15% higher from here.“

“On the flipside, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that appears unlikely in the current environment – would see gold give back 12%-17% of this year’s gains.” 

London Gold Fix (LBMA)

In a “mid-year pulse check” on the gold market, the LBMA polled 13 analysts about their current gold price predictions. The findings were published in a report on 14th July. 

“The average analyst forecast for the end-year price of gold was US$3,324.40 (some 27.3% above the end-2024 price), while no one suggested a price below that recorded on the first dealing day of this year (US$2,644.60),” said the LBMA. 

Opinions were, however, divided as to the gold price high of the year with US$4,000 being the highest and a fraction less than US$3,500 being the lowest. A significant number of analysts thought the price might actually be fading at year end with five from the 13 suggesting a December price of US$3,200 or below.

The prize for honesty must be awarded to one analyst whose answer to the question, “What are your current expectations for the 2025 average gold price?” was “Who knows?”

Longer-term trends 

Quarterly and yearly reports provide useful near-term perspective on the gold market, based on financial data and expert interpretation. 

It’s also worth looking into longer-term trends, as these may prove equally important to your success as a gold investor. Here are a few angles to consider: 

• Gold tends to perform well in January and late summer, meaning its price is relatively high. Selling gold at these times of year will often (but not always) bring a high return. 
• Digital, tokenised gold such as exchange-traded gold funds (ETF) remain popular among some investors, despite concerns over their security. This form of gold investment affects overall gold demand and therefore price. 
• The rise in demand for gold currently exceeds the rate of increase in supply of the metal. 

Long-term gold forecasts differ wildly in their estimations. For every prediction of new record highs, a contrarian such as Morningstar’s Jon Mills will offer a totally different take (in his case, that gold prices will fall 38% by 2030 due to rising supply). 

We believe you can draw more reliable conclusions about gold investment by looking carefully into the past of the gold market, rather than gazing far into its future. Shorter-term forecasts which are linked more closely to current realities have their place.

What’s the bottom line for gold investment?

Gold is a famously stable asset, and as such, gold investors shouldn’t feel the need to take drastic action based on the most recent forecasts. (If you were trading in currency, stocks or shares, it might be a different story.) 

It remains the case that gold is very likely to hold its value in the long term, and the sale or purchase of certain gold items (especially coins classed as currency) is still exempt from capital gains tax (CGT) in many cases.  

With that said, these are the most important insights from the latest forecasts to take on board as an investor: 

• A majority of major banks and institutions expect gold prices to keep rising through 2025 and at least the first half of 2026. 
• Forecasts vary in their gold price estimates. Several predict gold prices to reach $4,000/oz during 2026.
• There’s no rush to sell gold, but doing so could give you a good return on investment if you purchased it prior to 2025.
• The ROI of selling gold looks likely to increase over the next financial year.
• Gold is forecast to become more expensive over the next financial year.

In a nutshell, now seems like a good time to buy gold – and a few months ago would have been an even better time.